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Brahmaputra River and China's Hydropower Plans

Mohan Guruswamy

Introduction Last week, Chinese state media reported that the country could build up to 60 GW of hydropower capacity on a section of the Brahmaputra River. This statement, attributed to Yan Zhiyong, chairman of the state-owned Power Construction Corporation of China, has sparked concerns and protests on social media.

China's Hydropower Project China has already constructed a run-of-the-river hydropower project (215 MW) at Zhangmu, similar to the dams India is building on the Jhelum, which Pakistan contests. The bottom line is that upper riparian states can use the water but cannot divert or consume it.

India's Concerns An external affairs ministry consultant has raised concerns about China's infrastructure development in Tibet, improved connectivity with the Chinese mainland, and the potential impact on India's northeastern region. However, these concerns may not be as serious as they seem.

Examining the Concerns

  • Infrastructure Development: Improving infrastructure within one's own territory is a legitimate concern for any government. It is not reasonable to complain about every road or bridge, especially if military vehicles use them.

  • Connectivity with Frontier States: China's efforts to improve infrastructure and connectivity with frontier states along its border are not unique. Many countries prioritize such developments for military preparedness and regional disparity reduction.

  • Brahmaputra Waters: The concern over Brahmaputra waters needs to be examined in light of some key realities.

Water Wars Narrative Many Indian and international security experts have warned of potential "water wars" between India and China. However, a closer examination of the water distribution in the Brahmaputra basin reveals a different picture.

China's Water Diversion Plans Supporters of the "water wars" narrative believe that China has a plan to divert the Brahmaputra river's waters, specifically through the Grand Western Water Diversion Plan (GWWD). However, this plan was proposed long ago by Chinese water expert Guo Kai and remains an idea rather than a confirmed project.

The Yarlung Tsangpo Canyon The Yarlung Tsangpo River, which becomes the Brahmaputra after entering India, flows through the deepest canyon in the world, known as the Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon. The physical challenge of damming this canyon is immense, and even if the water is diverted for irrigation in Yunnan, it would involve monumental costs and a significant lift in elevation.

Water Distribution in the Brahmaputra Basin

  • China's Contribution: Despite having the largest spatial share of the basin, China generates only 22% of the total basin discharge due to low precipitation and desert conditions in Tibet.

  • India's Contribution: The India section of the basin, with about 34% of the basin area, contributes about half of the total discharge. This is attributed to melting snows in the eastern Himalayas and the severity of the monsoon.

  • Bhutan's Contribution: Bhutan, with 6.7% of the total basin area, generates 21% of the output, thanks to its high precipitation and mountainous terrain.

Utilization Rate of Brahmaputra Waters The utilization rate of water in the Brahmaputra system is very low, estimated at just 4% of the total discharge. This is due to the high speed and volume of the river's flow. Even a 10-20% cut in the Brahmaputra's water flow is unlikely to cause water scarcity in the Indian part of the basin.

Conclusion The "water wars" scenario regarding the Brahmaputra River is unfounded. Instead of worrying about China's potential water diversion plans, India should focus on harnessing more of the Brahmaputra's water for power and agriculture to benefit its people and Bangladesh. Close cooperation with Bangladesh is essential to maximize the river's potential for the region's development.

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