India’s Caste Census: A Milestone Marred by Risks

On April 30th, India’s government, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), announced that the 2025-2026 national census will include caste enumeration, a first since 1931. For Other Backward Classes (OBCs), who have long demanded granular data to address socio-economic disparities, this is a hard-won milestone. Yet, the journey toward a comprehensive, transparent report remains fraught with risks—from political maneuvering to methodological flaws. OBCs must stay vigilant, scrutinizing every step, lest this opportunity slips into another missed chance. Here’s what’s at stake and what must be done in the meantime.

A Fragile Victory

The caste census promise, driven by coalition pressures and electoral calculus, marks progress in a decades-long struggle. Bihar’s 2023 survey, revealing OBCs and Extremely Backward Classes as 63% of its population, underscored the need for national data to refine affirmative action and welfare schemes. The BJP, historically wary of caste enumeration for fear of fracturing its Hindu nationalist base, has shifted under duress. Allies like Bihar’s Janata Dal (United) and a resurgent opposition pushing “Jitni Abadi, Utna Haq” (rights proportional to population) have forced its hand. But the party’s flip-flops—opposing state surveys before embracing a national one—signal a pragmatic pivot, with upcoming state elections in 2025-2026 looming large.

This is no time for complacency. The announcement is merely a step in the “long march” toward a comprehensive report with fine-grained data on all castes, covering education, income, and social markers. The BJP’s mixed messaging, coupled with its electoral motives, raises doubts about its commitment to transparency. OBCs must not lower their guard; premature celebration, as one activist quipped, will wait until the report lands in the public domain, worthy of a “generous Patiala peg of Johnnie Walker Blue Label.”

Risks on the Horizon

The path to a credible caste census is littered with pitfalls, each threatening to undermine its potential to reshape social justice.

1. Political Manipulation
   The BJP’s electoral setbacks in 2024, particularly among OBC voters in Uttar Pradesh, suggest the census is a bid to reclaim support. Yet, its control over the process raises fears of selective data use. A census downplaying OBC numbers or avoiding detailed caste breakdowns could limit demands for higher quotas, appeasing upper-caste voters while frustrating OBC aspirations. Conversely, inflated figures could spark unrest if not matched by policy action, as seen in Karnataka’s contentious caste survey.
2. Methodological Flaws
   The 2011 Socio-Economic and Caste Census (SECC) was a cautionary tale, riddled with errors—millions of implausible caste entries—and never fully released. Without a robust methodology, the 2025-2026 census risks similar failures. Ambiguities persist: will it enumerate all castes or focus solely on OBCs? Will it capture nuanced markers like intra-caste disparities? Poor design could produce unreliable data, undermining policy and eroding trust.
3. Caste Polarization
   A census highlighting caste demographics could deepen social divides, challenging the BJP’s Hindutva vision of Hindu unity. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), its ideological mentor, has long warned against caste consciousness. Upper-caste backlash is a real threat if OBCs push for expanded reservations, while intra-OBC hierarchies—where dominant castes like Yadavs monopolize benefits—could fuel internal strife. The Rohini Commission (2017-2023) noted that 97% of OBC quota benefits go to just 25% of castes, a disparity that risks worsening without careful handling.
4. Delayed or Suppressed Data
   Political expediency could lead to delays or selective data release, as seen with the 2011 SECC under Congress rule. The BJP, wary of electoral fallout, might withhold sensitive findings or release partial reports to control the narrative. This would thwart OBCs’ goal of a comprehensive, public dataset to drive policy reform.
5. Implementation Challenges
   Conducting a nationwide caste census is a logistical behemoth, requiring trained enumerators, standardized caste lists, and public cooperation. India’s 2,000-plus OBC castes, with regional variations, complicate classification. Without rigorous training and clear protocols, data quality could suffer, as evidenced by past census errors.

What Must Be Done

While the census unfolds, OBCs and their allies must act decisively to safeguard its integrity and maximize its impact. The following steps are critical:

1. Scrutinize Methodology
   OBC advocacy groups must demand clarity on the census’s scope and design. Will it capture granular data on education, employment, and wealth across all castes? Engaging with the Registrar General of India, which oversees the census, to review question framing and caste classification is essential. Civil society should push for pilot surveys to test methodologies, learning from Bihar’s standardized approach.
2. Ensure Transparency
   Regular updates on census planning and execution are non-negotiable. OBC leaders should form watchdog committees to monitor progress, leveraging Right to Information (RTI) requests to access planning documents. Public consultations, involving OBC scholars and activists, can prevent opaque decision-making and build trust.
3. Mobilize Coalitions
   Unity is strength. OBCs must forge alliances with Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and other marginalized groups to amplify their voice. Regional parties like the Samajwadi Party, with a stake in caste data, should coordinate with grassroots movements to hold the government accountable. A united front can counter attempts to dilute the census’s scope.
4. Counter Political Narratives
   The BJP’s electoral motives demand constant questioning. OBCs should challenge mixed messaging—such as praising the census while downplaying sub-categorization—through public campaigns and media engagement. Highlighting the Rohini Commission’s findings can keep pressure on for equitable quota distribution, ensuring lower OBCs benefit.
5. Prepare for Post-Census Advocacy
   The census is a means, not an end. OBCs must strategize for the report’s release, advocating for its full publication in the public domain. Legal experts should be ready to challenge any suppression via courts, while policy think tanks can propose data-driven reforms, like sub-categorization or expanded welfare schemes. Community education campaigns can ensure OBCs understand and leverage the data.

A Long March Ahead

The caste census announcement is a milestone, not a victory. Its promise of fine-grained data to address caste inequities hangs in the balance, vulnerable to political games, shoddy execution, and social tensions. OBCs must remain steadfast, monitoring every step with the vigilance of a movement that has fought too long to falter now. The day a comprehensive report lands in the public domain will be cause for celebration—perhaps with a Patiala peg raised high. Until then, the struggle continues, with eyes wide open and resolve unbroken.