April 25, 2025
Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, thrives on confrontation. In Bihar, where assembly elections loom, he has zeroed in on Pakistan as his foil. After the April 2025 Pahalgam terror attack, which claimed 28 lives, Mr. Modi’s campaign rallies, like one in Madhubani, resound with pledges to “punish every terrorist and their backers”. Yet, in a state burdened by poverty, joblessness, and crumbling infrastructure, this fixation on external threats feels like a diversion. By banking on nationalism, Mr. Modi sidesteps Bihar’s deep-seated woes, wagering that patriotic zeal will eclipse voters’ frustrations. It is a calculated move that may secure votes but risks alienating a state desperate for progress.
A State in Distress
Bihar epitomizes India’s developmental divide: rich in potential, yet shackled by deprivation. Its per capita income, at ₹58,000 ($700) annually in 2023-24, is half India’s average. Over 30% of its 130m people live below the poverty line, and unemployment among graduates exceeds 20%, pushing millions to seek low-skill jobs in Gujarat or Delhi.
Education lags—Bihar’s literacy rate of 70% trails the national 77%—with rural schools short of teachers and books. Healthcare fares worse, with one doctor per 28,000 people, far below WHO benchmarks. Annual floods, which displaced 7.6m people in 2020, wreak havoc, yet promised embankments remain unfinished
These are the issues Biharis want tackled, as voiced in social media posts lamenting the absence of “roti, kapda, makaan” (food, clothing, shelter). One post demanded, “Modi talks Pakistan, but where’s the factory for my village?” Another highlighted collapsing bridges and unlit villages, questioning why Bihar lags while states like Gujarat prosper. The opposition, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress, has pounced, accusing Mr. Modi of neglecting Bihar’s development for electoral theater. Tejashwi Yadav, RJD’s young leader, branded the prime minister’s campaign “insensitive”, arguing that rallies during national mourning prioritize votes over unity.
The Nationalist Gambit
Mr. Modi’s strategy is familiar. Since 2014, he has wielded nationalism to deflect from governance shortfalls. In 2015, his Bihar campaign lurched from development to divisive caste and religious rhetoric, costing the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) a winnable election. In 2019 and 2024, he accused opponents of being soft on Pakistan, a tactic reprised in 2025 with jabs at Congress for allegedly sympathizing with terrorists. The Pahalgam attack, attributed to Pakistan-backed militants, has given him fresh fodder. His government’s response—suspending the Indus Waters Treaty and hiking tariffs on Pakistani goods—has drawn praise from allies like Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. But in Bihar, where voters grapple with daily survival, such geopolitics feel detached.
This emphasis on Pakistan is less about security than stagecraft. Bihar’s porous Nepal border, a potential conduit for smuggling or militancy, warrants some attention. Yet, Mr. Modi’s rallies dwell on theatrical threats, not local countermeasures. His English-language asides, aimed at global audiences, suggest a leader more focused on his strongman image than on Bihari farmers’ plight. Social media posts have called out the disconnect: one labeled his speeches “drama to win votes”, while another questioned why he didn’t confront Pakistan from Kashmir, not Bihar’s campaign trail.
A Spotty Record
The BJP’s record in Bihar invites scrutiny. Mr. Modi’s 2014 pledge of special status for the state, which would have unlocked extra funds, remains unfulfilled. High-profile projects, like the revival of Nalanda University, have produced more headlines than jobs. Infrastructure lags—only 60% of rural roads are paved, and power cuts are routine. Welfare schemes like Ujjwala (gas connections) and PM-KISAN (farmer subsidies) offer relief but fail to address structural issues. Nationally, India’s unemployment crisis, with 83% of the jobless being youth, hits Bihar hardest, yet Mr. Modi’s rallies lack plans for industrial hubs or skill training.
His economic policies have compounded Bihar’s woes. Demonetization in 2016 and the clumsy GST rollout in 2017 battered the state’s informal economy, which employs 90% of its workforce. Bihar’s share of central investment is meager—just 2.5% of India’s FDI between 2014 and 2023, compared with 30% for Gujarat. Social media posts have amplified this neglect, with one user contrasting Mr. Modi’s “Viksit Bharat” (Developed India) vision with Bihar’s reality: “No schools, no hospitals, only promises.” Another demanded a PM Textile Park, accusing the prime minister of favoring other states.
The BJP’s alliance with Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) adds complexity. Mr. Kumar, Bihar’s chief minister, has delivered modest gains—better roads, more electricity—but his political flip-flops and dependence on Mr. Modi’s charisma dent his credibility. The BJP’s caste outreach, including cabinet posts for Extremely Backward Castes, aims to consolidate support, but it feels superficial when jobs and education remain scarce.
Electoral Risks
Mr. Modi’s nationalism is a double-edged sword. In 2024, his Lok Sabha campaign, tinged with Islamophobic rhetoric, alienated moderates and forced him to rely on coalition partners like Mr. Kumar after a subdued result. Bihar’s electorate, while receptive to patriotic appeals, prioritizes caste and livelihood concerns, as shown by the BJP’s 2015 defeat. The opposition’s Mahagathbandhan, uniting RJD, Congress, and smaller parties, is exploiting this, portraying Mr. Modi as an outsider who treats Bihar as a vote bank. Social media posts urging voters to “teach Modi a lesson” reflect rising youth frustration, especially among first-time voters who see no future in the state.
Globally, Mr. Modi’s image as a decisive leader earns accolades, but it rings hollow in Bihar’s villages. His failure to channel India’s 7% GDP growth into equitable development exposes a blind spot. Bihar’s 60m-strong workforce could drive India’s rise, but only with investment in education, health, and industry. Instead, Mr. Modi offers rhetoric, betting that nationalism will mask governance gaps.
A Looming Reckoning
The BJP may clinch Bihar, propelled by Mr. Modi’s charisma, Mr. Kumar’s ground game, and a fragmented opposition. But a win would be hollow without post-election delivery. Bihar’s voters, long patient, are growing restive. If Mr. Modi persists with optics over outcomes, he risks eroding his mandate. The state needs a leader who sees its potential, not just its votes. As one social media post put it, “Bihar gave Modi power. Now give us progress.” Whether he heeds this call will shape not only Bihar’s future, but his own legacy.
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