Terror on the rails and in the hills

When intelligence falters, the innocent bear the brunt

The spectre of terrorism continues to haunt South Asia, manifesting itself with chilling regularity and devastating effect. The twin tragedies of the Jaffar Express attack in Pakistan and the massacre of tourists in Baisaran, India, in the spring of 2025, stand as grim testaments to the region’s persistent vulnerabilities. These atrocities, distinguished by their audacity and the sophistication of their execution, were rendered possible by profound lapses in intelligence and systemic inertia. Though separated by geography and divergent political landscapes, both incidents illuminate a shared malaise: the catastrophic price of strategic blindness.

Anatomy of Catastrophe

On March 11, the Jaffar Express, traversing the tumultuous terrain of Balochistan, became the stage for a meticulously orchestrated assault. The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), a formidable insurgent group, sabotaged the railway tracks with explosives before storming the carriages, heavily armed and ruthlessly efficient. Hostages were taken, demands for the release of political prisoners were issued, and a 48-hour ultimatum was declared. The Pakistani military’s response-codenamed “Operation Green Bolan”-was swift but costly. The ensuing siege resulted in a harrowing death toll: at least 21 civilians and four soldiers, according to official figures, though the BLA’s own claims were far higher. The episode exposed not only the operational prowess of the insurgents but also the glaring deficiencies in Pakistan’s intelligence apparatus, which failed to anticipate or pre-empt such a complex, multi-pronged attack.

Barely a month later, India was convulsed by its own tragedy. On April 22, militants affiliated with the Resistance Front-a shadowy proxy of Lashkar-e-Taiba-descended upon a group of Hindu tourists in the verdant meadows of Baisaran, near Pahalgam in Kashmir. The attack was executed with chilling precision: 26 civilians were killed in a matter of minutes, the assailants melting away into the rugged landscape before security forces could mount an effective response. Despite persistent warnings about the resurgence of hybrid militancy and the vulnerability of tourist convoys, Indian intelligence agencies failed to fortify the region or disrupt the plot. The attack not only shattered the illusion of normalcy in the Valley but also exposed the inadequacies of India’s counterterrorism posture.

The Intelligence Abyss

Both atrocities were underpinned by egregious intelligence failures. In Pakistan, the BLA’s ability to coordinate sabotage, hostage-taking, and a protracted standoff revealed a dangerous underestimation of the group’s capabilities. Security personnel aboard the train were swiftly overwhelmed, and communications were severed at critical moments. The state’s rigid, force-centric response-eschewing negotiation in favour of brute force-betrayed a lack of strategic imagination and adaptability.

In India, the Pahalgam massacre laid bare the fissures within the security architecture. Despite credible intelligence regarding militant movements and heightened risk to tourists, preventive measures were conspicuously absent. Surveillance of known networks was sporadic, inter-agency communication faltered, and the lack of medical evacuation capacity meant that several victims succumbed to their injuries unnecessarily. The episode has since provoked rare public introspection and calls for a fundamental overhaul of intelligence protocols.

Political Theatre and Strategic Myopia

The aftermath of both attacks was characterised by a familiar choreography of blame, denial, and rhetorical posturing. In Pakistan, officials were quick to attribute the carnage to foreign machinations, pointing accusatory fingers at India and Afghanistan, yet offering scant evidence. Rail operations were suspended, compensation packages hastily announced, and the military’s heroism extolled in parliament. Yet, the deeper grievances that fuel the Baloch insurgency-decades of political disenfranchisement, enforced disappearances, and economic marginalisation-remained conspicuously unaddressed.

India’s response, though more introspective, was equally politicised. Security was intensified across Kashmir, investigations were launched, and the attack was swiftly linked to Pakistan’s “proxy war” doctrine and incendiary rhetoric emanating from Islamabad. The tragedy ignited a national debate on intelligence failures, the safety of tourists, and the imperative of transitioning from reactive containment to proactive, intelligence-driven prevention.

The Human Toll

Behind the statistics and official communiqués lies an ocean of human suffering. In Balochistan, bereaved families mourned not only their civilian kin but also soldiers ensnared in a conflict that has festered for generations. In Kashmir, the deliberate targeting of Hindu tourists was a calculated attempt to inflame communal passions and destabilise the fragile equilibrium. Survivors recounted scenes of chaos and terror, punctuated by a profound sense of abandonment by the state.

Lessons Unheeded

The lessons from these tragedies are neither novel nor obscure, yet they remain stubbornly unheeded. Intelligence agencies must transcend the mere accumulation of data; they must cultivate the capacity for incisive analysis, timely dissemination, and decisive action. Security paradigms must evolve from reactive postures to anticipatory, intelligence-led frameworks. Seamless coordination among military, police, and civil authorities is indispensable, as is the cultivation of robust human intelligence networks and community engagement.

Political leadership must eschew performative outrage in favour of substantive reform, addressing the root causes of conflict and ensuring that pledges of transformation are not relegated to the realm of rhetoric. Critical infrastructure-be it trains or tourist destinations-must be fortified through regular risk assessments, technological upgrades, and rigorous emergency preparedness protocols.

International cooperation is equally imperative. The United Nations Security Council’s condemnation of these attacks, while symbolically significant, must be matched by tangible collaboration in intelligence-sharing, counterterrorism capacity-building, and the disruption of transnational terror finance networks.

The Geopolitical Undercurrents

These attacks are symptomatic of deeper regional pathologies. The Baloch insurgency is sustained by a toxic cocktail of marginalisation, repression, and the geopolitical machinations surrounding the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. In Kashmir, the confluence of local grievances and cross-border jihadist infiltration renders peace perpetually elusive. The temptation to draw facile equivalence between the two attacks, as some commentators have done, obfuscates the distinct historical and political contexts from which each arises. Yet both demand an unflinching reckoning with the failures of statecraft, intelligence, and governance.

Conclusion

The tragedies of the Jaffar Express and Baisaran are stark reminders that, in South Asia, the cost of institutional complacency and strategic inertia is measured in shattered lives and fractured communities. Until the region’s leaders summon the will to confront the underlying drivers of violence and invest in sophisticated, humane, and anticipatory security strategies, such horrors will remain an all-too-familiar refrain. The imperative is clear: vigilance, reform, and empathy must supplant denial, inertia, and indifference-lest history continue its grim repetition.

Aspect	Jaffar Express Attack	Baisaran Attack
Location/Setting	Moving train in Bolan Pass, Balochistan, Pakistan; ambushed in a tunnel.	Static meadow in Baisaran Valley, Jammu and Kashmir, India; accessible by foot/horseback.
Date	11th March, 2025 .	22nd April, 2025
Target	Passenger train with over 400 civilians, including women, children, some military.	Tourists, primarily Hindu men, in a popular meadow.
Casualties	30–64 killed (passengers, soldiers, 33 attackers); 38 injured.	26 killed (25 tourists, mostly Hindu men, 1 Muslim); several injured.
Perpetrator	Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA).	The Resistance Front (TRF), linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT); TRF later retracted claim.
Motivation	Ethnonationalist; BLA seeking Baloch independence, protesting Pakistan’s oppression.	Islamist militancy; opposing India’s Kashmir policies, targeting Hindus.
Nature of Attack	36-hour hijacking/hostage crisis; explosives derailed train, ultimatum for prisoners.	20-minute targeted massacre; selective killing of Hindu men, no hostages.
Security Response	Operation Green Bolan; 30-hour military operation rescued 354 hostages, killed 33 insurgents.	Delayed response; security arrived over an hour later, attackers fled, still at large.
Casualty Composition	Mixed: civilians, military, attackers; BLA claimed to spare Baloch civilians.	Mostly Hindu male tourists, 1 Muslim, 1 Nepali Christian; women/Muslims spared.
Security Lapses	Remote terrain and tunnels hindered response.	Early tourist season opening without security notification; no permanent deployment.
Geopolitical Fallout	Pakistan accused India/Afghanistan; limited to diplomatic tensions.	India suspended Indus Water Treaty, closed Attari border; Pakistan blocked airspace, trade.
Impact on Infrastructure	Train services suspended between Balochistan, Punjab, Sindh; increased patrols.	Tourism collapsed in Kashmir (90% hotel rooms empty in Pahalgam); sites closed.
Regional Tensions	Pakistan blamed India; India denied involvement.	India blamed Pakistan; Pakistan condemned attack, denied involvement.
Execution	Prolonged, coordinated with explosives, hostage demands.	Swift, selective, attackers escaped into forests.