For a quarter-century, India and the United States have forged an increasingly tight partnership, bound by shared democratic values and mutual wariness of China’s rise. From the landmark 2008 civil nuclear deal to the Quad’s revival, the relationship has flourished. Yet under Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister since 2014, ties with America have hit turbulence, particularly during Donald Trump’s presidency (2017-2021). Critics argue that Mr. Modi’s foreign policy, with its blend of personal charisma and nationalist bravado, misjudged Mr. Trump’s “America First” agenda, leading to missed opportunities and dashed expectations among Indians at home and abroad. Is this a fair assessment, or does Mr. Modi’s broader strategy deserve more credit?
A Promising Bromance
Mr. Modi’s approach to America has leaned heavily on personal diplomacy. His rapport with Mr. Trump was on vivid display at events like the “Howdy, Modi!” rally in Houston in 2019 and the “Namaste Trump” extravaganza in Ahmedabad in 2020. These spectacles, attended by tens of thousands, projected an image of harmony between two right-wing leaders. Substantive gains followed: India signed key defense pacts, such as COMCASA (2018) and BECA (2020), deepening military interoperability. The Quad, a strategic grouping with Japan and Australia, gained momentum, cementing India’s role in America’s Indo-Pacific strategy to counter China. Arms sales, including Apache helicopters, unhderscored a growing defense partnership.
Yet beneath the bonhomie, cracks emerged. Mr. Trump, ever the transactional dealmaker, bristled at India’s high tariffs—famously griping about duties on Harley-Davidson motorcycles. In 2019, he revoked India’s preferential trade status under the Generalized System of Preferences, citing unfair market access. Hopes for a comprehensive trade deal fizzled, with India’s protectionist instincts clashing with Mr. Trump’s MAGA-driven demands. Mr. Modi’s team, perhaps buoyed by ideological parallels, overestimated the power of personal ties to bridge these gaps.
Misreading the MAGA Playbook
A core critique of Mr. Modi’s foreign policy is its apparent assumption that shared right-wing leanings would smooth negotiations. This was a miscalculation. Mr. Trump’s manifesto prioritized American jobs and exports, not ideological camaraderie. India’s refusal to lower tariffs or open its markets frustrated Washington. Meanwhile, Mr. Trump’s restrictive H-1B visa policies hit Indian IT professionals hard, alienating a key segment of America’s 4.5m-strong Indian diaspora. Mr. Modi’s inability to secure visa relief, coupled with domestic controversies like the Citizenship Amendment Act, fueled discontent among some Indian-Americans, though others remained ardent supporters.
To call Mr. Modi’s foreign policy a “complete failure,” as some detractors do, is too harsh. His multi-alignment strategy—balancing ties with America, Russia, and others—has preserved India’s strategic autonomy. India’s purchase of Russian S-400 missile systems, despite U.S. sanctions risks, reflects this pragmatism. Yet the absence of a trade breakthrough with Mr. Trump and the visa imbroglio suggest a lack of strategic agility. Mr. Modi’s high-energy diplomacy, while boosting India’s global profile, sometimes prioritized optics over outcomes.
Beyond Trump
Since Mr. Trump’s departure, Indo-U.S. relations have regained momentum under President Joe Biden. The 2+2 ministerial dialogues, launched in 2018, have deepened strategic ties, while the 2022 Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) has spurred collaboration in AI and semiconductors. Bilateral trade, though still below potential at $120bn in 2020, continues to grow. Mr. Modi’s outreach to the Indian diaspora has bolstered India’s soft power, even if immigration hurdles persist.
At home, Mr. Modi’s foreign policy has stoked national pride by projecting India as a global player. Yet tangible economic benefits, such as U.S. investment-driven jobs, remain limited, fueling domestic skepticism. Regionally, strained ties with China and Pakistan have complicated India’s global ambitions, though these predate Mr. Modi.
Patience and Pragmatism
Successful foreign relations, as critics rightly note, demand consistency and patience. Mr. Modi’s engagement with America has been consistent across administrations, but his government could have been more pragmatic in addressing Mr. Trump’s trade demands. India’s protectionist policies, rooted in domestic politics, constrained negotiations—a challenge any Indian leader would face. Still, a bolder push for market reforms might have unlocked greater U.S. investment.
Mr. Modi’s foreign policy is not the unmitigated disaster some claim. It has strengthened India’s strategic position and deepened U.S. ties, particularly in defense and geopolitics. Yet the failure to secure a trade deal with Mr. Trump and address diaspora concerns highlights areas for improvement. As India navigates a multipolar world, Mr. Modi must blend his trademark charisma with hard-nosed pragmatism to fully realize the Indo-U.S. partnership’s potential.
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